What’s Coming for Higher Ed

The signals you can’t ignore

ENROLLMENT & DEMOGRAPHICS

The “traditional learner” pool peaks in 2025.
U.S. high school graduates hit 3.9M in 2025, then declines to 3.4M by 2030 and stays down through 2041.
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door

Undergraduate enrollment is still below pre-COVID levels.
Fall 2024 undergrad enrollment remained ~1M students below 2019, with only modest recovery projected through 2026.
Source: National Student Clearinghouse

Adult learners remain the growth segment.
Students ages 25+ now represent over 33% of all U.S. higher-ed enrollment — the only segment projected to grow through 2032.
Source: NCES Projections 2026

AFFORDABILITY & COSTS

Inflation-adjusted net tuition has dropped nearly 50% since 2012.
Net tuition for in-state students at public four-year institutions fell from $4,450 (2012) to ~$2,300 (2025-26).
Source: College Board Trends in College Pricing

Sticker-price variation is enormous.
Average in-state tuition for 2025-26 ranges from $6,360 (Florida) to $18,090 (Vermont).
Source: College Board

Room and board continues to outpace tuition.
Housing/meal costs have risen 22% over the last decade, compared with 11% for tuition.
Source: College Board / NCES

FINANCIAL HEALTH & FUNDING

Expenses are growing faster than revenues.
For 2026, Moody’s projects 3.5% revenue growth vs. 4.4% expense growth, signaling margin pressure.
Source: Moody’s / Higher Ed Dive

State support reached an all-time high.
States invested $123.6B in FY 2024, a 9% increase over FY 2023.
Source: NEA Higher-Ed Funding Report

1 in 4 colleges now run operating deficits.
Moody’s reports that ~25% of institutions operate with structurally negative margins.
Source: Moody’s Investor Service

STUDENT EXPECTATIONS & BEHAVIOR

Mental health demand keeps climbing.
73% of college counseling centers report rising demand; waitlists increased 45% over five years.
Source: Association for University and College Counseling Center Directors (AUCCCD)

Students expect career returns.
79% of prospective students say they want a college to include “clear pathways to a job.”
Source: ECMC Group / Strada Student Trends

Value skepticism is mainstream.
Only 36% of Americans now say a four-year degree is “worth the cost.”
Source: Gallup 2024

TECHNOLOGY, AI & INNOVATION

AI adoption in higher ed is accelerating.
84% of institutions deployed or piloted generative-AI tools in 2024–25, up from 15% one year earlier.
Source: EDUCAUSE Horizon Report 2025

Digital infrastructure is the #1 capital priority.
Campus CIOs rank modernization of IT systems, cybersecurity, and hybrid-learning environments as their top investment categories for 2026.
Source: EDUCAUSE / Gartner Higher Ed Outlook

GLOBAL POSITIONING & COMPETITIVENESS Fewer U.S. schools in top global rankings.
Only 102 U.S. institutions made the 2026 THE Top 500 — the lowest count in history.
Source: Times Higher Education / Inside Higher Ed